Michael J. Moses

mjm469@georgetown.edu | Site | LinkedIn

Summary

I'm a strategist, evaluator, and researcher. For more than 16 years, leaders in philanthropy - and previously, governments and nonprofits - have relied on me to figure out what they're trying to achieve, how to do it, and whether it's working. In practice, this means I design and lead rigorous, mixed-methods evaluations of hard-to-measure initiatives and translate research results into strategies people actually act on. For example, I recently carried out an evaluation of a major foundation's $150M+ portfolio; the board applied my recommendations in setting the program's next long-term strategy.

I’m now focused on bringing my expertise to AI safety. Systems-focused practitioners have spent decades building methods - many of which have yet to be adapted to the field of AI - for measuring complex, context-dependent, and mechanism-driven change, and developing rigorous strategies that deliver impact. This gap matters, especially as capability continues to outrace our ability to understand what frontier systems can actually do in the real world, how they behave, and why. We need a richer toolkit for assessing AI systems, making evidence-based governance decisions, and building rigorous strategies. My recent writing and research (see below) begins to explore what that toolkit might look like, and what deploying it might make possible.

AI Safety: Writing & Research

Writing

• How would we know? Reflections on trying to make AI go well (LessWrong post, Oct. 2026)
• Treading the narrow corridor: a hypothesis about epistemics and the design, training, and deployment of advanced AI systems (Aug. 2026)
• A score is not understanding: toward a richer toolkit for model evaluations (LessWrong post, July 2026)
• Applying systems thinking and evaluation science to AI safety: four demonstrations (Aug. 2026)
• Assumptions & weak signals: how to build a stronger empirical basis for reasoning about the pace of AI progress (July 2026)
• The evaluator’s guide to generative AI: what works, what doesn’t, and practical guidance (learning brief, March 2026)

Coursework

• Lens Academy, AI Futures Forecasting and Strategy (ongoing, through October 2026)
• Lateral Workshop (September 2026)
• BlueDot Impact, Frontier AI Governance (August 2026)
• BlueDot Impact, AGI Strategy (June 2026)
• Nous AI x Philosophy Reading Group

AI in Practice

• Lead, AI Strategy - I led the design and implementation of EnCompass’ company-wide AI strategy, developing policies and guidance to manage how 500 staff across 8 countries applied generative AI.
• Lead, AI Integration - at Itad, I’ve led the integration of generative AI tools and platforms into my work with foundations. Specifically, I’ve: designed and implemented workflows integrating Claude Opus 4.8 into the analysis and synthesis of 80 interviews; used CoLoop, a generative AI-powered analysis platform, to aid the analysis of 60+ in-depth interviews and hundreds of reports and documents; and applied Delve’s AI-assisted coding on multiple projects.
• Member, Emergent Learning Artificial Intelligence Working Group - I meet regularly with other evaluators and researchers to share lessons, insights, and challenges regarding how to use generative AI tools in support of strategy and evaluation.

Professional Experience

Itad, Boston, MA (remote)

Deputy Director | March 2025 - present

• Lead an international consulting firm’s evaluation, research, and strategy work with major philanthropies, designing and running rigorous, mixed-methods evaluations of complex, dynamic systems, and facilitating diverse stakeholders' efforts to use evidence to develop and adapt data-driven strategies under uncertainty.
  • Led the mixed-methods evaluation of the MacArthur Foundation’s 10-year, $150M+ “Big Bet On Nigeria” program: combining social network analysis, outcome harvesting, the Delphi technique, and case studies to assess whether, to what extent, and under what conditions the foundation contributed to strengthening governance in Nigeria; designed and implemented a 40+ stakeholder sensemaking process to co-create strategic recommendations. Presented evaluation findings and recommendations to the Foundation’s board - which then informed the Foundation’s next-phase strategy in Nigeria.
  • Designed and led participatory strategy, research, and evaluation processes for foundations deploying $100M+ portfolios (the Richard L. Duchossois Foundation’s Chicago-focused work, Margaret A. Cargill Philanthropies’ international climate resilience program, the America for Bulgaria Foundation, and others), leveraging mixed-methods, complexity-aware methods to generate evidence, bring staff, boards, and grantees together to test and update hypotheses, and make better decisions about how to navigate and shape complex systems.

EnCompass LLC, Rockville, MD

• Oversaw a global consulting firm’s philanthropy practice, leading complexity-aware, mixed-methods evaluations and creating evidence-based strategies for foundations working in complex systems across the world. I also served as a strategic advisor and evaluator to government clients, while managing up to 4 direct reports and leading project teams of up to 20.
  • Led an ongoing strategic learning partnership with the MacArthur Foundation, leading the design of the Big Bet On Nigeria program’s initial theory of change, producing 20+ mixed-methods evaluations and research reports over 4 years, and facilitating real-time learning and strategic adaptation across 100+ grantees and foundation staff as they used evidence to update hypotheses and program strategies.
  • Oversaw the design and implementation of complexity-aware evaluation and strategy practices for the Margaret A. Cargill Philanthropies, conducting 4 annual analyses of indicator data reported across 2000+ communities in 6 countries, leading mixed-methods research exploring how complexity and context interact to affect disaster preparedness, and facilitating 5 in-person events that brought together 40+ participants to engage with evidence and make strategic decisions.
  • Led mixed-methods evaluation, research, and strategic advisory projects for government clients, including the US State Department’s flagship anti-human trafficking program in Peru, and USAID/Ukraine’s anticorruption portfolio.

DAI, Bethesda, MD

Senior Global Monitoring, Evaluation, & Learning Specialist | November 2019 - September 2020

• Led systems-based, mixed-methods research projects for dozens of international teams across a global company, supporting $20M+ projects operating amid complexity in Malawi, Tunisia, Tajikistan, Vietnam, and elsewhere, on topics from clean energy to land rights to social accountability.

Global Integrity, Washington, DC and Cape Town, South Africa

• Led a team of 8, overseeing evaluation, research, and strategic advisory projects for a variety of clients and partners, including the Open Society Foundations, the Gates Foundation, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, USAID, UKAID, the Open Government Partnership, and Transparency International.
• Led Global Integrity’s internal evaluation and strategy practice, developing and implementing the organization’s theory of change, overseeing ongoing evidence collection and analysis, and determining regular updates to guiding hypotheses and assumptions.

Peace Corps, Dospat, Bulgaria and Washington, DC

• Consulted with Peace Corps HQ, guiding efforts to improve evaluation practice across the agency.
• As a community development advisor, I partnered with the municipal administration and local NGOs to stand up an EU-funded small business development program, and guided local entrepreneurs to access and use funding in support of rural communities.

Keough-Naughton Center, Dublin, Ireland

Researcher | August 2010 - March 2011

• Led a mixed-methods research study focused on the political motivations of Irish politicians, conducted over 100 interviews with members of parliament, and analyzed the collected data. Findings published in the book How Parties Win, by Dr. Sean McGraw.

Research & Publications

• Adaptive Learning Partnerships in Action: Insights and Reflections from the MacArthur Foundation’s Big Bet on Nigeria (The Foundation Review, June 2026)
• On Nigeria Big Bet: Final Evaluation & Learning Synthesis Report (The MacArthur Foundation, December 2025)
• Context Counts: Cultivating Community Preparedness amid Complexity (Margaret A. Cargill Philanthropies, May 2025)
• 20+ impact studies and research reports (The MacArthur Foundation, 2020 - 2024)
• Learning to make all voices count: Lessons & reflections on localising the Open Government Partnership (The Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, December 2017)

Writing, Commentary, & Field-Building

• Author of many blogs and white papers exploring complex systems evaluation, including:
  • Decision-making for impact in complex and volatile systems (April 2026)
  • The missing middle: positioning philanthropic boards and staff towards systems change (2025)
  • Expanding the Evaluator’s Toolbox: From Determining to Developing Value in Systems Change (2025)
  • Theory-Based Approaches for Navigating Complexity (2023 appearance on the Evaluland Podcast)
  • Function > form: Using impact measurement methods to drive learning, action, and impact (2022)
• Regularly lead professional development workshops and conference presentations on applying theory-based research & evaluation in complex systems, with 200+ evaluators trained to date.
• Member of both the American Evaluation Association and the European Evaluation Society.

Skills/Languages/Geographical Experience

Technical Skills: systems-based research and evaluation methods (theory-based evaluation, developmental evaluation approaches, and realist evaluation), strategic foresight, and participatory research methods Software Skills: Power BI, Miro, R, Microsoft Dynamics Languages: English (native), Bulgarian (fluent), Spanish (proficient) Countries of Work Experience: Bulgaria, Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Tunisia, Georgia, the Philippines, Thailand, Guatemala, Mexico, Colombia, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and India

Education

Master of Arts, International Development | May 2015 Coursework focused on strategy, learning, and evaluation Recipient of a full scholarship Georgetown University, School of Foreign Service

Bachelor of Arts, Philosophy & Political Science (double major) | May 2010 University of Notre Dame

Certifications

• Futures Thinking & Strategic Foresight | October 2025 | administered by Rogue Union
• Decolonizing Monitoring, Research, and Learning | April 2023 | administered by Cynara
• Emergent Learning | January 2020 | administered by 4th Quadrant Partners
• Developmental Evaluation - Systems and Complexity Course | July 2017 | administered by TEI